Juan Pablo Duch


La Jornada newspaper
Wednesday, November 24, 2021, p. 26

Moscow. Faced with the avalanche of speculations and interested leaks, no one dares here – at this moment – to take for granted or completely exclude an imminent military intervention by Russia in Ukraine, while some accuse and others deny for, swapping roles as if it were a grotesque vicious circle, launching verbal counterattacks that seek to endorse the blame for an eventual war that is not yet and may not come to be.

Those who consider that there is no rational motive pointing to an inevitable armed confrontation on the Russian-Ukrainian border, detract from the veracity of the Kremlin’s alleged plans to invade the neighboring Ukrainian regions, from Belarus and Crimea, no later than next January or February. (As revealed by several US media, in a permanent race to get the scoop, citing intelligence sources).

They say that, with a warlike adventure of this magnitude (it was leaked that up to 100,000 Russian soldiers would cross the border at the same time), Russia would lose more than it could gain, since the Ukrainian army is no longer the perplexed group of uniformed men. who were surprised in 2014 during the brilliant operation of the Little Green Men (elite Russian soldiers) who were deployed to the peninsula to secure the annexation of Crimea.

They know that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization sets the alarm signals for any movement of Russian troops and weapons, even within its territory, which it likes or does not have the right to do whenever it wants, and they see no further sign of imminent war. On it.

Although they admit that they cannot put their hands on the fire that it is not a ploy and the Russian army is only waiting for the ruse to intervene, they place those tactical movements of troops and weapons in what President Vladimir Putin recently called the mission to maintain a certain concern in the West that will make it desist from its intention to continue advancing towards the East.

Those, on the other hand, believe that it is no coincidence that an influential former Kremlin adviser in charge of relations with Ukraine, such as Vladislav Surkov, recently published an essay that – more words, fewer words – argues that Russia, like it or not , has in its destiny to expand as a great power, they assert that a sector of the Russian ruling elite is only looking for a pretext to make a reality what, for those politicians around Putin, is a dream.

The secretary of the Russian Security Council, Nikolai Patruschev, former director of the FSB (successor of the Soviet KGB), in an interview yesterday paved the way for an inescapable response by the Russian army by predicting that the Ukrainian government, driven by the United States, is planning a solution of force in the rebel regions, which are not subordinate to Kiev.

For the Kremlin, Ukraine is one of those red lines that the West should not cross, and in its view it is doing so by supplying modern offensive weapons and, what it considers to be a stab in the back, drones from Turkey, a country with which Russia is seeking understandings to take advantage of the gas pipeline already laid and distribute it in the Black and Caspian seas areas of influence.

In addition, the most pessimistic are convinced that a Russian intervention for irrational reasons should not be excluded, not so much because it was planned in advance, but as a spontaneous reaction to the accidental outbreak of an armed confrontation, any illogical action that may be taken by a kind of spark that ignites the powder keg wick.

Meanwhile, both – from antagonistic positions – affirm that they intend to resume the negotiation of a political settlement for the conflict in southeastern Ukraine, which has long been in what appears to be its sad destiny: to remain unsolved, in part deep in the freezer.